Only Two Months until the NEXT Congress-Created Crisis

is_this_tomorrow

Congress creates another crisisLate last night, one-third of House GOP members voted with the Democrats to pass legislation avoiding the “Fiscal Cliff”.  Congressman Bass voted in favor of the bill; Congressman Guinta voted against it.

Even though the Senate had passed the bill almost unanimously, until dinnertime, it looked like the bill would fail in the House.  What happened at dinnertime?  The House took up a brand-new bill bashing federal employees and attempting to rescind their 0.5% cost-of-living increase, which is scheduled to go into effect at the end of March.  [Federal employees have already supplied $108 billion in “budget savings” through a two-year pay freeze and increased retirement contributions.]

Sure, there were only a few hours left for Congressional action.  Sure, there was no chance whatsoever that a brand-new bill would become law.  The House still took 90 minutes to debate it and hold a roll call vote. [Both Guinta and Bass voted for the bill.  Please remember that, if either of them run again for Congress in 2014.]

And after that last symbolic attack on federal employees, GOP House leadership was finally able to get around to the business of avoiding the Fiscal Cliff.  Gotta wonder about their priorities.

When it finally passed at 11:00 last night, the Fiscal Cliff bill was a true compromise.  It included concessions that angered people on both sides.   (Read the bill here.)

But it also set up yet another Congress-created crisis, scheduled to hit in only two months.

  • The bill did not address the federal debt limit – and two months from now, the Treasury will have exhausted the debt limit “headroom” created by taking “extraordinary measures” with government and postal employee pension funds.
  • The bill did not resolve “sequestration” spending cuts – but rather postponed them for two months.

So, the nation is rolling straight from one Congress-created crisis into another Congress-created crisis.

Gotta wonder why Congress keeps creating crises.  (Journalist Naomi Klein has an interesting theory about how crises – real or perceived – are used to further corporate goals.  Read more here.)

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One of many things the Fiscal Cliff bill didn’t address was restoring the state share of federal estate taxes.

In a “sponge tax” system dating back to 1924, estate tax revenues were historically shared between the states and the federal government.  Back in 2001, Congress federalized the states’ portion of these revenues to help pay for the “temporary” Bush tax cuts.

Restoring the “sponge tax” system could mean more than $3 billion in annual revenues for state governments.  New Hampshire could receive an estimated $27 million in annual revenues.  Read more here.

frigateThe estate tax has a long and patriotic history.  It was created to raise funds for the country’s first Navy, and was used to fund almost every war before Iraq.  Read more here.

But for the past few decades, “members of a handful of super-wealthy families have quietly helped finance and coordinate a massive campaign to repeal the estate tax.  …The families also have helped finance outside groups that have spent millions on fear-mongering ad campaigns intended to sway public opinion against the estate tax.”  Read more here.

Who knows?  Maybe restoring these state revenues will be a part of whatever bill resolves this next Congress-created crisis.

According to Bush Economists: His Tax Cuts Don’t Really Improve the Economy

best case scenario

Another thing to remember, as you’re watching the Fiscal Cliff negotiations:

Back in 2006, President George Bush asked the US Treasury Department to analyze what would happen to the economy if his tax cuts were made permanent.  Treasury economists conducted a “dynamic analysis” of the tax cuts, which was clearly intended to provide a political justification for making the tax cuts permanent.

best case scenario for economic impacts of Bush Tax Cuts

This is the Treasury’s “best case” scenario, which
is based on extremely optimistic assumptions.
Source of chart: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

But here’s what they found, instead:

even under favorable assumptions, making the tax cuts permanent would have a barely perceptible impact on the economy.  Under more realistic assumptions, the Treasury study finds that the tax cuts could even hurt the economy. In addition, the study casts doubt on claims that the tax cuts are responsible for much of the recent growth in investment and jobs.  It finds that making the tax cuts permanent would lead initially to lower levels of investment, and would result over the longer term in lower levels of employment (i.e., in fewer jobs).

What ?!?

The Treasury study finds that making the tax cuts permanent would reduce long-run labor supply (i.e., the number of people working and the number of hours they work) by 0.3 percent.

Three-tenths of one percent in today’s labor market translates into about 468,000 jobs.

If we end the Bush tax cuts, will those jobs come back?

Speaker Boehner’s ‘New Offer’ is ‘to make top 2% tax cuts permanent’?!?

House Speaker John Boehner

Speaker Boehner

Was House Speaker Boehner joking?

The press is beginning to report the details of his latest “offer” in the fiscal cliff negotiations.

Guess what?

The GOP’s newest proposal is to make the Bush tax cuts for the top 2 percent of American… permanent.

Read about it here.

Guess the GOP still thinks they should be able to dictate the terms of the fiscal cliff “compromise”.  What a way to “fix” the crisis that Congress created.  Most of us are still hurting from one of the worst recessions in history; 12 million Americans are still unemployed.  Shouldn’t the GOP be concerned about something other than protecting the wealthy?

Fiscal Cliff: Who is “entitled” to what?

Washington Post Poll September 11 2001

Something else to remember, as you’re watching news coverage of the Fiscal Cliff negotiations:

The tax rates that GOP Congressional leaders are trying so hard to defend are relatively recent – and the public has never supported them.

Washington Post Poll September 11 2001Just months after the first round of tax cuts was passed, in 2001, a Washington Post poll found that 57% of Americans wanted to roll back the tax cuts in order to preserve the federal budget surplus. (Yes, we had a surplus, back then.)

There’s more:

President Bush’s budget director had just warned congressional Republicans that “it was likely the government would tap the Social Security surplus this year, contradicting what he had been saying only a few weeks earlier.”

That same Washington Post poll found that “an overwhelming 92 percent of those surveyed said they opposed using Social Security funds” for things other than retirement benefits.

That was in 2001. Two years later, it was clear that the first round of Bush tax cuts hadn’t “jump-started” the economy – so the White House pushed through another round. This time, the bill had so little support it almost didn’t pass the Senate. GOP stalwarts John McCain, Lincoln Chafee and Olympia Snowe all voted against it. The Senate split 50-50 – and Vice President Dick Cheney cast the deciding vote.

That’s right… Dick Cheney was responsible for passing the tax cuts that House Speaker John Boehner is now trying so hard to defend.

“Entitlements”?

In recent weeks, Speaker Boehner has been talking about tax cuts for the wealthy as if they’re somehow sacred. He doesn’t seem to care what he has to sacrifice, to protect those high-income taxpayers.

Speaker Boehner is insisting on cuts to “entitlement programs” such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid – before he will agree to any fiscal cliff “compromise”.

And if taxes are going to be raised – well, guess who Speaker Boehner expects to pay the price? Here’s Senate President Harry Reid’s analysis of Speaker Boehner’s latest proposal, earlier today:

“Their proposal would raise taxes on millions of middle-class families,” Reid said on the Senate floor. “Their plan to raise $800 billion in revenue by eliminating popular tax deductions and credits would reach deep into pockets of middle-class families.”

Speaker Boehner wants to cut “entitlements”?!

The working families of America have paid into the Social Security system for decades, expecting to get benefits back when we retire.

High-income taxpayers owe their low tax rates to former Vice President Dick Cheney.

Who, exactly, should be entitled to what?

Read more about the fiscal cliff here.